of Leonardo Fraternale
Our slows latter part of 2010 and ended the year with a growth of 1, 1% , just short of government estimates, which showed a +1.2%. Compared to the crisis all'annus horribilis, 2009, chiusosi con crollo del 5,1%, il 2010 ha segnato una ripresa , anche se il ritmo di crescita italiano appare estremamente debole rispetto ai più vigorosi esempi che arrivano dall’Europa.
“Siamo contenti, ma vogliamo e dobbiamo fare di più”, ha commentato da Bruxelles il ministro dell’Economia, Giulio Tremonti . “Ad aprile presenteremo il piano per la crescita, tenendo conto che il problema dell’Italia è quello del Sud. Più cresci e meglio è. E noi – ha sottolineato – contiamo di raggiungere obiettivi più ambiziosi”. Il +1,1% stride in particolare con il +3,6% della Germania While in the year struck from the negative consequences of the ice that has paralyzed the country, and is even lower than the 1.7% of the Eurozone and the EU-27 and +1.5% in France, penalized in this case the strikes against pension reform. A growth differs little from 1% , as predicted last October by the Bank of Italy governor, Mario Draghi, the rest had already been branded as "disappointing" by Confindustria, the Italian economy in the last report reluctantly had cut their estimates, speaking of a country that "once again left behind."
The slowdown was evident in the fourth quarter . Between October and December 2010 the GDP was almost stagnant, the increase was minimal and equal to just 0.1% against 0.3% the previous quarter. At the same time, the euro zone grew by 0.3% and the entire EU 0.2%. Even Spain has been better than Italy, with a +0.2%. These results are not exciting but still higher than the Italian one. We have performed worse than Greece (-1.4%), Portugal (-0.3%) and the United Kingdom (-0.5%), again mainly due to bad weather. A surprise in the last months of the year was industry to a standstill.
According to Istat, in fact, the increase is the result of a cyclical increase in the value added of agriculture (after the fall of 3.1% in 2009, notes Coldiretti) and services and a decrease in the value added of industry. "Closing the positive fourth quarter was not easy after the decline in industrial production," said the president of the Institute of Statistical, Enrico Giovannini, while stressing that "the a way to bring us back on pre-crisis levels is long " .
You can add the data disseminated by the OECD on the growth recorded in the 34 countries in the decade 1999-2009, are anything but comforting for Italy. Our country has in fact been marked by an annual average increase of only 0.5%, the worst since the OECD area, where the average growth rate was considerably higher (1.7%), like that of the euro area (+1.4%). Queued also Japan, the penultimate with +0.7%, and Germany, while in the first place is the Slovak Republic with an average growth exceeding 4.5%, slightly in front of Korea.
It is not clear the reason by which Tremonti is happy.
Certainly the trend of GDP in 2010 was much better than that which occurred in the previous period but where there was a real collapse. In fact, if Tremonti recognize that the trend of GDP was far from satisfactory (Fig. below) , as they really happened, acknowledges the profound limits of its economic policies, all aimed at containing the deficit and without interventions, both short-term and structural, designed to promote economic growth, a goal that Tremonti is not considered important?, beyond the general admission that it had to do more?.
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